Fifa International · resolved market
United States vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0764321989c608c54338ce6c028f216be3f1c74d464562b434df453b71f62234
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 22c | 5,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.94 | 592 | 30.1%178 W · 414 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 80c | 3,890$3,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.43 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…5854backed Over | 23c | 1,119$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.38 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 78c | 724.73$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.01 | 508 | 50%254 W · 254 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 78c | 656.97$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.53 | 219 | 53.4%117 W · 102 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 11c | 573.6$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +18.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 23c | 505.96$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 454 | 28%127 W · 327 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 10c | 469.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 23c | 469.57$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 308 | 36%111 W · 197 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 79c | 404$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.32 | 864 | 55.3%478 W · 386 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…c6e7backed Over | 20c | 398.75$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.75 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 78c | 392.77$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.88 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 10c | 368.72$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 77c | 351.19$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.58 | 368 | 50.3%185 W · 183 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…72ebbacked Under | 78c | 319.7$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.72 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7e…cd92backed Under | 78c | 300$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 20c | 285.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 22c | 246.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 136 | 43.4%59 W · 77 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 77c | 224.08$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Under | 79c | 197.68$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 109 | 58.7%64 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 7c | 189.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 79c | 155.18$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Over | 21c | 132.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 78c | 70.36$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…1700backed Under | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…5301backed Over | 22c | 55.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…fab9backed Over | 22c | 52.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 481 | 47.8%230 W · 251 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b3…0d4abacked Under | 79c | 38.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 78c | 33.88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 1,001 | 53.9%540 W · 461 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Under | 79c | 33.68$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x950a…68f5backed Under | 79c | 26.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed Under | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ec…f845backed Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…6221backed Under | 79c | 24.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 147 | 63.9%94 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…5a14backed Under | 78c | 23.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…f31bbacked Under | 80c | 20.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Under | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 222 | 58.6%130 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 78c | 18.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 86 | 59.3%51 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 79c | 18.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 77c | 16.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 436 | 53.7%234 W · 202 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Over | 70c | 15.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf962…5cb1backed Under | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- United States vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Portugal (-1.5)Portugal won
- Spread: Portugal (-2.5)United States won
- Spread: United States (-1.5)Portugal won
- Spread: United States (-2.5)Portugal won
- United States vs. Portugal: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- United States vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5Over won
- United States vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5Under won
- United States vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.