Fifa International · resolved market
United States vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfead521035ba200151d7e6b88e97333af9763374f0ff844315b8162ad1894ea9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 16c | 1,620$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.13 | 1,262 | 47.5%600 W · 662 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under | 17c | 1,175$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.52 | 222 | 26.6%59 W · 163 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 15c | 698.01$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.93 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 570.36$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.08 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a1…ee48backed Under | 19c | 527.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 71c | 508.3$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.12 | 258 | 65.9%170 W · 88 L | +40.1wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…9cfbbacked Over | 77c | 480.54$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.52 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 17c | 475.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.22 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 16c | 374.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 16c | 223.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 16c | 203.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Under | 16c | 164.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…0c64backed Over | 73c | 123.35$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…72ebbacked Under | 19c | 107.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 19c | 91.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 864 | 55.3%478 W · 386 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888c…19f9backed Under | 27c | 73.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 16c | 68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 16c | 68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 86 | 59.3%51 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Under | 18c | 63.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 75c | 47.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…a81bbacked Over | 71c | 31.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…d33ebacked Over | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Over | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 222 | 58.6%130 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- United States vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Portugal (-1.5)Portugal won
- Spread: Portugal (-2.5)United States won
- Spread: United States (-1.5)Portugal won
- Spread: United States (-2.5)Portugal won
- United States vs. Portugal: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- United States vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5Under won
- United States vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5Under won
- United States vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.