Fifa International · resolved market
United States vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21c00ea78cd62316cfb0957fc39d261ec409c39650e0a4b288af2275bbf36b5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,049.86 | 592 | 30.1%178 W · 414 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Under | 80c | 2,995$2,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.16 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 64c | 664.19$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.68 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 24c | 572.74$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.29 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +18.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…6d3bbacked Over | 39c | 549.99$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.5 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb4…7595backed Under | 59c | 509.06$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.4 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +5.2wins | +0.33per pick | 55cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 33c | 429$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.57 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…ef55backed Under | 59c | 425.21$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.25 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 60c | 391.99$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.61 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…c6e7backed Over | 37c | 349.87$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.95 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 38c | 341.7$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.53 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1030…dd7abacked Under | 60c | 335.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.77 | 109 | 58.7%64 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…a66cbacked Under | 61c | 327.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.97 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…72ebbacked Under | 59c | 317.09$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.07 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 59c | 304.72$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.51 | 414 | 51.4%213 W · 201 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 25c | 282.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb253…26febacked Under | 60c | 278.67$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.67 | 135 | 48.1%65 W · 70 L | -9.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Over | 19c | 265$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 18c | 231.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 222 | 26.6%59 W · 163 L | -15.6wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 20c | 225.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48a1…b363backed Under | 59c | 203.39$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 60c | 200.43$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.93 | 508 | 50%254 W · 254 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 60c | 171.45$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 59c | 169.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 255 | 54.5%139 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Under | 79c | 161.38$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x010f…6c1abacked Under | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2605…2b17backed Under | 69c | 144.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 60c | 143.05$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.72 | 864 | 55.3%478 W · 386 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 20c | 132.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 41c | 123.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 218 | 40.8%89 W · 129 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…d8adbacked Under | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce5…af2ebacked Over | 20c | 94.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Over | 20c | 86.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 237 | 49.8%118 W · 119 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 38c | 79.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Over | 22c | 71.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae02…7ed0backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 59c | 45.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Under | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Over | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48a2…316dbacked Over | 40c | 37.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 36c | 35.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…91c3backed Under | 71c | 35.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 61c | 34.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Over | 36c | 33.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 41c | 32.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 363 | 29.8%108 W · 255 L | -17.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Under | 53c | 19.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 209 | 68.4%143 W · 66 L | +21.5wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4666…3a55backed Under | 59c | 18.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Under | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 86 | 59.3%51 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- United States vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Portugal (-1.5)Portugal won
- Spread: Portugal (-2.5)United States won
- Spread: United States (-1.5)Portugal won
- Spread: United States (-2.5)Portugal won
- United States vs. Portugal: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- United States vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5Over won
- United States vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5Under won
- United States vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.