Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0788da56815ccda3d3183223fb12d5f590d16f8689cd17694817fc3d1f6faf2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,811
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,695$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 21c | 1,101$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.86 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 522.72$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 484.08$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…5d78backed Yes | 25c | 394.64$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 386.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 316.25$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 300$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 11c | 292.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 10c | 280.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 21c | 256.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 77c | 203$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.65 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 198.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.97 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 10c | 195.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 8c | 185.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked Yes | 10c | 180.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 177.47$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.57 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd782…a950backed Yes | 10c | 161.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 79c | 161.35$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 160.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7754…278dbacked Yes | 19c | 148.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 18c | 113.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 14c | 99.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5150…1838backed Yes | 19c | 96.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 14c | 95.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 11c | 92.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…9a56backed Yes | 39c | 89.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ce…2ea5backed Yes | 18c | 89.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 78.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 14c | 75.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 20c | 74.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 25c | 74.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 21c | 71.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 70.79$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 78c | 68.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 62$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 50.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 76c | 50.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 22c | 49.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x729c…52ccbacked Yes | 23c | 47.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…bcebbacked Yes | 24c | 47.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked No | 78c | 40.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 33c | 40.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed No | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…95c4backed No | 80c | 34.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 75c | 33.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0409…457ebacked Yes | 31c | 32.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 77c | 29.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked No | 74c | 26.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 68c | 22.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 76c | 18.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 77c | 15.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…5ac3backed No | 80c | 14.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 73°F or below on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.