Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99ca35bc8a2d23bebd2dea00f65ce61285457ea91bb5e8ac2f707bbe8a8b0a50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,754
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca71…610bbacked No | 75c | 409.99$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.34 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 24c | 400.13$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe4…d1c0backed No | 74c | 394.99$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.79 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 79c | 288.69$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.7 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 27c | 249.1$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed No | 71c | 203.72$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.85 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 70c | 202.49$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 37c | 201.8$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 44c | 200.12$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 27c | 199.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 195.11$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 167.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 144.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bd…b85abacked No | 69c | 140.38$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 117.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 56c | 101.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 91.46$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 63c | 89.93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…9b0cbacked Yes | 32c | 86.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 73c | 80.11$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 78.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 75c | 73.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 56c | 72.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 64c | 72.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e5…86f4backed Yes | 28c | 70.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 80c | 68.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 17c | 68.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 63.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 23c | 62.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…fa02backed Yes | 30c | 60.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 80c | 55.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 28c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 69c | 53.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 51.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 34c | 50.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 43c | 49.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 72c | 47.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 23c | 47.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70d3…2909backed Yes | 24c | 43.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 38c | 43.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Yes | 37c | 42.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x171c…942dbacked Yes | 24c | 42.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7754…278dbacked Yes | 25c | 40.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39e…23a5backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 29c | 39.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…4bb2backed No | 75c | 38.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6517…573fbacked No | 72c | 37.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…95c4backed No | 80c | 37.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…89bcbacked Yes | 28c | 37.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed Yes | 27c | 37.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 30c | 37.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 80c | 36.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e3…fcacbacked No | 68c | 35.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 34c | 34.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 57c | 33.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 32c | 31.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 62c | 31.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 62c | 31.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 29.15$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 67c | 28.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 71c | 28.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 71c | 27.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 70c | 27.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa972…40c2backed No | 74c | 26.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 58c | 23.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 22.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 22.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 19.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 77c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 73c | 16.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 74c | 13.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…ace3backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 73°F or below on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on April 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.