Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x078ad60ef17d54b8ea92a8c1dde85a17e694f4f599db15607b20b27dfbb6af1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,547
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 1,229$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.48 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 8c | 1,160$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca6…0997backed Yes | 1c | 1,025$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 644.05$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 15c | 538.95$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.32 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 33c | 499.99$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 18c | 436.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.59 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 33c | 333.64$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 6c | 308.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 5c | 279.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 7c | 256.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1839…a2a2backed Yes | 10c | 221.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -88%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 206.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 13c | 152.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 14c | 152.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 145.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 38c | 132.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 11c | 94.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 28c | 92.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 16c | 74.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 31c | 51.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 51.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 23c | 43.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 26c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 71c | 27.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 76c | 26.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 25.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd009…91afbacked No | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked No | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 69c | 19.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 18.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 77c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…0a1abacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.71 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0c…b790backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.