TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 28?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,061
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,270

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,061 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes49c1,221$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.451,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3500…07f0backed Yes65c873.43$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.3215527.7%43 W · 112 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe51f…473dbacked Yes67c596.78$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.782100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No23c489.2$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.874,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No31c421.92$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.84,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No57c361.99$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.172,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No57c320$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.656543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x441a…e9c7backed No42c311.84$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.9739543.5%172 W · 223 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No43c310.22$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.982,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No39c275.33$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.814,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes43c205.48$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.1264021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No39c205.07$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.275,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No8c190.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes42c188.4$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.0810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No56c182.12$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.792,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3eb…ed72backed Yes42c156$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.6813834.8%48 W · 90 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes66c151.52$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5264446.4%299 W · 345 L+19.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc50c…8d41backed No36c137.86$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.142366.4%281 W · 142 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes63c129.61$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.555,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed No13c128.79$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.161,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No36c125$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.81,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes73c115.13$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5945148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No40c115$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.924,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No27c113.09$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.113,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No43c111$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7354253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No35c104.5$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5327852.9%147 W · 131 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x457e…72ddbacked No46c101$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.4613444.8%60 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35fb…8511backed Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4525135.1%88 W · 163 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf21…e0c1backed No47c95.29$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4511163.1%70 W · 41 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No57c95$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.153,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc1…647abacked Yes58c90$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.156048%269 W · 291 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30d6…50c3backed Yes58c89.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.529443.5%128 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed No58c85$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.371649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No57c82$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.743,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No57c81.04$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.52,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No57c78$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.262,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No46c74.73$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5683459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xed29…3848backed Yes55c71.68$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.085028%14 W · 36 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+47.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dbe…4f51backed No57c70.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409150.5%46 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes54c70$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.23,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No55c64.91$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.664,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb32…79aabacked No39c62.39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.511,18762.2%738 W · 449 L+27.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No25c61.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes58c61.85$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.143,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes42c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.860739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No27c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.351,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No44c60$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.49,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes77c57.67$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2338454.9%211 W · 173 L+26.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5710…b854backed Yes57c56.68$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.372536%9 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes43c51.75$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.488,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764a…83d3backed No43c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.53231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-45.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No35c49.26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.242,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No57c45$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.652,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes60c44.51$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.676,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes46c42.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2146148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No36c42.87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6176059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes40c42.16$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3252446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No57c41.91$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.891,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1907…ac1abacked No33c39.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133560%21 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes72c38.73$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7289544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd2…9ab1backed No29c38.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.219153.8%49 W · 42 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97a5…4dbfbacked No38c37.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.212650%13 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-10.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No44c36.42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.071,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.3661249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bbd…3bedbacked No58c36.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9837541.6%156 W · 219 L-52.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-28%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x0a8d…7688backed Yes57c35.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.086651.5%34 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No36c31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.151,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9428…5cecbacked Yes63c30.35$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.351952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes61c30.26$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.811927.7%33 W · 86 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No48c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.45,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8192…871ebacked Yes73c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.17749.4%38 W · 39 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No59c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.63,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes65c29$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0666758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes73c27.57$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5714943.6%65 W · 84 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No54c24.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.162,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No46c24$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.041,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes46c22.29$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0954335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes53c22.24$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.451,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4937…fbd0backed No55c21.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.931450%7 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-27.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No58c21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.184,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x671a…0c9cbacked Yes55c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.43865.8%25 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4629…f3b1backed No58c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.61973.7%14 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes75c19.92$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9356322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x718b…1bf2backed Yes64c17.72$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.382360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe128…ccb4backed Yes68c16.18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.182556%14 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.