Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea04edd48464a43b7fe2c2617c9a11a3c4c4b257a4d01ed60e08961ac538c0b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 27c | 1,220$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.94 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 41c | 782.29$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.2 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 382.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 77c | 380.69$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.59 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 361.99$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.42 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 31c | 320.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 276.43$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 264.34$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.29 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 35c | 250$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5710…b854backed Yes | 30c | 155.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15b1…a8e8backed Yes | 21c | 147.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 146$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 31c | 130.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 121$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 66c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 26c | 118.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 115$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 21c | 114.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 29c | 112.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 35c | 107.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 36c | 105.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 26c | 105.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 29c | 102.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 30c | 99.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 65c | 99.6$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 62c | 91$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 72c | 84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 83.46$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 18c | 82.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked Yes | 28c | 80.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 26c | 77.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 72c | 74.14$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.83 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d1…65b4backed Yes | 14c | 72.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 35c | 71.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 71.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 70.93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 69.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…896ebacked Yes | 30c | 67.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 30c | 66.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed No | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 60.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59cc…2963backed Yes | 28c | 60.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 29c | 58.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 29c | 57.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 30c | 56.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 56.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 25c | 55.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 27c | 53.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 22c | 50.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 48.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 67c | 48.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 46.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 34c | 39.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 38.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x862f…7e34backed Yes | 29c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 76c | 37.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 73c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 64c | 30.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9428…5cecbacked Yes | 37c | 28.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4629…f3b1backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 75c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 73c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 77c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on July 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.