Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-03-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07a51e5c6c24d71805cb6bf7c8fe9d7b6b4db27b36f673582c2f4a807bd48710
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,331 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 15c | 4,034$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.49 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 14c | 1,627$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.61 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 26c | 1,041$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.75 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 22c | 1,020$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.4 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…a1cdbacked Yes | 40c | 924.59$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.56 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 866.77$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.62 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 22c | 805.27$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.11 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 78c | 623.91$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.03 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 23c | 506.9$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.52 | 131 | 29.8%39 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5444…bbdabacked No | 51c | 441.18$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.18 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +34%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Yes | 24c | 336.72$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc77e…3f78backed Yes | 25c | 327.75$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 25cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x350c…8955backed No | 75c | 327.75$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20b1…69d2backed No | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 50cpaid | +73%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e16…b790backed No | 75c | 283.96$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0859…bac4backed Yes | 25c | 283.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 12c | 262.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 15c | 240.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 22c | 205.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d2…090fbacked No | 60c | 175.11$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.6wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Yes | 46c | 140.48$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…0d7ebacked Yes | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 49c | 130$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.1 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Yes | 46c | 108.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 76c | 95.55$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.19 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 12c | 93.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 49c | 93.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e32…449bbacked Yes | 17c | 78.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 76c | 71.31$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 26c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 78c | 56.96$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 78c | 56.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Yes | 39c | 51.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c73ebacked No | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 62c | 48.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x750d…566bbacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed No | 51c | 31.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac3…3c8bbacked No | 79c | 26.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Yes | 42c | 25.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked No | 79c | 22.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x106e…28e5backed No | 79c | 17.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 69cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdba6…13a3backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-03-21?this page
- Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden end in a draw?No won
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-03-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.