Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccf00141f7ed632071eb300a4b913d41bdd9aa9ca36fdbce8a249118bad9c37c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Yes | 31c | 9,806$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 64c | 4,249$2,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,519.56 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 70c | 2,597$1,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.16 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 55c | 1,597$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.66 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d2…090fbacked No | 54c | 902.37$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.67 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.6wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 70c | 856.99$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.25 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 29c | 700$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…78debacked No | 44c | 589.56$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.36 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 63cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 71c | 533.82$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.15 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 520.13$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.6 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 38c | 500$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 33c | 400$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 66c | 300.43$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.59 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 44c | 278.47$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.1 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Yes | 18c | 231.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 50c | 215.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.27 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 22c | 197.67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 60c | 193.02$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 51c | 184.35$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.13 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 48c | 160$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 74c | 112$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 75c | 110$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…2c78backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Yes | 68c | 96.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.38 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 65c | 91.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 25c | 72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed No | 39c | 71.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked No | 57c | 71.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 25c | 63.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bc03backed No | 69c | 62.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fd…b1fabacked Yes | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 54c | 55.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…c210backed Yes | 25c | 50.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…c638backed Yes | 24c | 47.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e32…449bbacked No | 39c | 43.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed No | 73c | 42.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 32c | 32.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 37c | 29.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 42c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 18.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 63c | 16.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…38bfbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 70c | 14.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked No | 76c | 14.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. SG Dynamo Dresden end in a draw?this page
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-03-21?Yes won
- Will SG Dynamo Dresden win on 2026-03-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.