Mls · resolved market
Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07c69014488766c45a3538134bcd53e886955504d97c5b28144adda02e531cc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 20c | 7,520$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.32 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 12c | 3,500$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 80c | 1,600$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 172 | 58.1%100 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Under | 80c | 1,200$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 122 | 63.1%77 W · 45 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 80c | 700$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 18c | 599.7$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.95 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 19c | 501.68$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.14 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Under | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 131 | 58.8%77 W · 54 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 80c | 180$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 150 | 60%90 W · 60 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 80c | 160$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 80c | 160$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f21…3bcebacked Over | 19c | 107.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta United FC (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)Atlanta United FC won
- Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.