Mls · resolved market
Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c9a075b0d78e3f694a6c5ef6109b9b49e8b6af8f03322c50fb274e4ccb3c599
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 37c | 9,129$3,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,342.84 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 15c | 3,492$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.02 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 65c | 1,926$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.84 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 63c | 1,600$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592 | 172 | 58.1%100 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 1,340$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.6 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Under | 63c | 1,200$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444 | 122 | 63.1%77 W · 45 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 67c | 1,173$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.69 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 36c | 1,078$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.56 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 63c | 1,057$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.14 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 76c | 824.33$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.46 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 64c | 757.36$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.65 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 46c | 738.02$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.67 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 63c | 700$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 63c | 600$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 35c | 594.87$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.2 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 55c | 428.7$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.03 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 43c | 388.83$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.2 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Under | 63c | 328.89$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 131 | 58.8%77 W · 54 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 13c | 299.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 36c | 270.04$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.14 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…9d5fbacked Over | 51c | 263.08$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.64 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…2f49backed Under | 79c | 255.21$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 64c | 251.89$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.18 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 64c | 249.55$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.27 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 65c | 235.56$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.45 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 62c | 216.95$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.81 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 65c | 202.03$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…92ddbacked Under | 5c | 200$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 59c | 195.08$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 63c | 180$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 150 | 60%90 W · 60 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…f6e1backed Under | 39c | 162.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.18 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Under | 60c | 161.63$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 121 | 62%75 W · 46 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc454…8c31backed Under | 25c | 159.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 17c | 112.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 52c | 108.58$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 78c | 94.88$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 65c | 86.95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 25c | 77.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Under | 32c | 74.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.96 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 14c | 74.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.02 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 31c | 61.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 56c | 58.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Over | 35c | 54.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd876…4c8bbacked Over | 20c | 52.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 32c | 49.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 24c | 43.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 68c | 41.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…0a40backed Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Over | 47c | 35.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1956…1ef8backed Over | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 65c | 21.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 65c | 16.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | -11.4wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1643…6ec8backed Under | 77c | 14.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta United FC (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)Atlanta United FC won
- Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.