Mls · resolved market
Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x280bf65dd39dd5c486018f97fbac4b0d2db5fdecb9d5c0597c11f0a8a71dfe22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 52c | 3,203$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,542.99 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 2,731$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.04 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 29c | 1,103$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.45 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed Under | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…8814backed Over | 73c | 671.5$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 35c | 539.48$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.1 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 19c | 483.8$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.92 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 42c | 360$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.3 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…1639backed Under | 36c | 334.17$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.21 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2af9…ce6abacked Over | 79c | 211.24$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +80%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 64c | 139$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.03 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 73c | 135.38$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…8cf8backed Over | 60c | 122.02$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 46c | 105.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 72c | 99.92$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 64c | 92.54$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Under | 21c | 90.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 28c | 77.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 55c | 75.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 75c | 74.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab8…e32fbacked Over | 49c | 57.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Over | 80c | 52.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 49c | 50.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8701…2075backed Over | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 49c | 46.53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 74c | 42.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3080…f041backed Over | 73c | 33.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…41d1backed Under | 35c | 29.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Over | 68c | 24.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta United FC (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)Atlanta United FC won
- Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.