Mls · resolved market
Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3dca824534c86ea67fd4bbee60513fd466a2449e8adff304a73cef5dc6c93abc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 59c | 11,570$6,811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,758.52 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 41c | 3,795$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,555.79 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 41c | 2,146$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.44 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 1,919$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.97 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 41c | 1,600$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656 | 172 | 58.1%100 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Under | 41c | 1,200$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492 | 122 | 63.1%77 W · 45 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 63c | 1,191$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.95 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 41c | 700$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 41c | 600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 59c | 585.24$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.95 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 58c | 479.75$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.08 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 21c | 453.62$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.36 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 42c | 393.18$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.01 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 59c | 317$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.54 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 39c | 247.03$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.69 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 48c | 202.61$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.37 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Under | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 69c | 196.28$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.43 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 38c | 181.63$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.73 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under | 41c | 180$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 150 | 60%90 W · 60 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Under | 69c | 168.86$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.51 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Under | 41c | 160$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 41c | 160$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 41c | 160$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.6 | 121 | 62%75 W · 46 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…a60cbacked Over | 57c | 143.65$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 69c | 142.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Under | 36c | 133.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 52c | 132.07$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.39 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 31c | 128.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.55 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 25c | 128$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 40c | 127.63$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.03 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 47c | 126$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 46c | 114.8$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Over | 32c | 110.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.42 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 144 | 59.7%86 W · 58 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 46c | 96.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 46c | 65.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 45c | 64.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 52c | 64.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 56c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 53c | 58.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 43c | 56.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 49c | 51.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 43c | 46.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 42c | 46.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc4…5a94backed Under | 44c | 45.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dd…69ddbacked Under | 46c | 43.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 40c | 38.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x73f1…5823backed Under | 63c | 37.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…8e8fbacked Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…4a5bbacked Over | 56c | 35.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 44c | 33.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 42c | 33.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 53c | 33.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bff…c8a8backed Over | 57c | 25.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 79c | 24.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 42c | 24.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 56c | 24.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -11.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d3…aafbbacked Under | 47c | 24.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5382…8d53backed Under | 43c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: Atlanta United FC (-2.5)Toronto FC won
- Spread: Toronto FC (-1.5)Atlanta United FC won
- Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto FC vs. Atlanta United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.