MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07c6dc73ce06a97f3e049e915645f70e6d914019e323af2af6c0028e4463ab3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,289
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,699.98 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a6…71bdbacked Under | 47c | 3,265$1,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,730.59 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 2,277$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,229.79 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 50c | 2,094$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.13 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 46c | 1,234$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.36 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 1,202$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.15 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Under | 46c | 734.5$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.63 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 54c | 479.18$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.14 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 61c | 287.42$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.2 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 51c | 250$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.4 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 53c | 235.04$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.59 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 229.38$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.13 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.05 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 57c | 195$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.15 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…f4ffbacked Under | 46c | 182.93$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.78 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 69c | 145.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Over | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 53c | 109.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Over | 40c | 99.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 52c | 94.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…93fcbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 49c | 88.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 49c | 85.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 53c | 70$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0d…596cbacked Under | 50c | 59.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Over | 47c | 53.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 48c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 72c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 55c | 47.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 51c | 46.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 49c | 46.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Under | 67c | 45.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x205d…2ad2backed Over | 49c | 43.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…f6c9backed Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 53c | 38.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 62c | 38.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Over | 44c | 38.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 51c | 35.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00c5…b5e9backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Under | 67c | 17.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.