Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07c7678e11ad342ef5e3e843f260c775074e5c0952be72871829968fefe3a5d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 2,073$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 1,259$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 77c | 998.56$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.25 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 75c | 463$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.48 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 73c | 449.09$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.12 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 79c | 430.38$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.21 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 356.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.86 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 14c | 309.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 74c | 269.31$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 266.83$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.56 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 26c | 199.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 6c | 188.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 7c | 180$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 76c | 161.56$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 72c | 161.33$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 160$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 21c | 149.65$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 33c | 137.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 29c | 131.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 30c | 127.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 74c | 109.14$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 23c | 104.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 76c | 101.07$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 98.12$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 78c | 89.76$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 26c | 85.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 84.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed No | 74c | 81.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 27c | 73.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x280e…2b32backed Yes | 28c | 68.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 55.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 72c | 54.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 54.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 26c | 49.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 27c | 48.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 74c | 43.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 30c | 42.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 29c | 42.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 30.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 67c | 28.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83f6…9ac8backed No | 72c | 24.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 72c | 20.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed No | 79c | 20.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…c9d9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 77c | 19.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…fa69backed No | 73c | 17.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 74c | 16.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 80c | 13.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.