Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33c5136babba094a01e10b9ced204de6414d55e44591c4ce0e2dda26baf001b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 46c | 2,007$921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.27 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 46c | 1,445$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 60c | 1,296$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.38 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2856…c8f9backed Yes | 51c | 1,154$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.58 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 43c | 1,107$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.17 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 56c | 899.9$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.95 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 56c | 847.99$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.82 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 56c | 788.96$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.82 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 51c | 573$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.27 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 45c | 513.36$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.36 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 459.5$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 60c | 409.43$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.85 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 37c | 402.03$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.03 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 40c | 399.63$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.12 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 54c | 387$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.98 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 46c | 339.77$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 53c | 326$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.64 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 65c | 287.92$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.33 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 266.83$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.15 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 28c | 259.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 21c | 238.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf956…9bf0backed Yes | 72c | 194.01$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 53c | 172.23$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 42c | 168.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.04 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 164.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…dc55backed Yes | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 140.67$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 46c | 124.46$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7103…c469backed No | 29c | 121.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 114.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 80c | 114.2$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 44c | 109.09$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 49c | 108.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 49c | 101.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…a4febacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 27c | 97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 24c | 94.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 48c | 92.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 42c | 92.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 55c | 90$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 31c | 88.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…3989backed No | 32c | 75.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…00e4backed No | 48c | 74.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbe…4f51backed No | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 68.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 79c | 66.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1f…dbdabacked Yes | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 49c | 49.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 62c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 46.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 44c | 44.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 51c | 44.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 44c | 44.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c98…7d22backed Yes | 69c | 41.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 53c | 38.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 41c | 38.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 79c | 37.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 71c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 31c | 33.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 33.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 49c | 31.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 61c | 30.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 61c | 29.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a9…bd85backed No | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 56c | 25.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 45c | 24.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 53c | 22.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 48c | 21.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…e863backed No | 64c | 20.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1d…ead3backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1028…1316backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 53c | 19.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.