CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07ca311442055d4d7af2efce39d331630f4971070828ee8d0ad9dc93daffa16e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Misa Esportsof Misa Esports, G2 Ares
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed G2 Ares | 30c | 1,366$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.46 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e86…6dfbbacked Misa Esports | 25c | 950.07$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.49 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Misa Esports | 36c | 619$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.23 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebc…a33dbacked G2 Ares | 68c | 490.14$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.78 | 631 | 57.1%360 W · 271 L | +40.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Misa Esports | 55c | 350.88$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.13 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked G2 Ares | 66c | 350$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.68 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Misa Esports | 32c | 281.81$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.81 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59cb…57d1backed G2 Ares | 35c | 266.59$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.38 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed G2 Ares | 39c | 258$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.43 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed G2 Ares | 39c | 193.55$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.37 | 573 | 22.3%128 W · 445 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ac…7deebacked Misa Esports | 55c | 192.11$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.82 | 431 | 52.9%228 W · 203 L | +26.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Misa Esports | 57c | 171.08$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Misa Esports | 58c | 130.73$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.55 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked G2 Ares | 39c | 130$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked G2 Ares | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 162 | 50%81 W · 81 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked G2 Ares | 38c | 118.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 630 | 38.6%243 W · 387 L | -26.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked G2 Ares | 63c | 113.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed G2 Ares | 26c | 113.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 754 | 38.9%293 W · 461 L | -38.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa2…6df9backed G2 Ares | 64c | 93.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 162 | 45.7%74 W · 88 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Misa Esports | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed G2 Ares | 58c | 77.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 700 | 42.3%296 W · 404 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2c50backed G2 Ares | 51c | 76.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.32 | 721 | 39.7%286 W · 435 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked G2 Ares | 44c | 74.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 215 | 36.3%78 W · 137 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed G2 Ares | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 270 | 37.8%102 W · 168 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9051…32d2backed G2 Ares | 53c | 56.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked G2 Ares | 30c | 55.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 1,848 | 41.7%770 W · 1,078 L | -69.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Misa Esports | 34c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Misa Esports | 41c | 53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.15 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe80c…f3e6backed Misa Esports | 53c | 52.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 419 | 38.9%163 W · 256 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked G2 Ares | 55c | 39.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 597 | 3%18 W · 579 L | -221.0wins | -0.37per pick | 40cpaid | -90.7%equal weight | 11-0.36 edge/pick |
| 0x2d79…9e95backed Misa Esports | 51c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 163 | 49.1%80 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Misa Esports | 53c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 1,068 | 55%587 W · 481 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked G2 Ares | 69c | 28.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 210 | 60%126 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Misa Esports | 62c | 21.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 2,214 | 47.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…4cc3backed Misa Esports | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 169 | 58%98 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…8d97backed G2 Ares | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 326 | 62%202 W · 124 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Misa Esports | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs G2 Ares - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs G2 Ares (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Play-In Group DG2 Ares won
- Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs G2 Ares - Map 2 WinnerG2 Ares won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.