Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs L1ga Team (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07f45f198b342a35e484ddf6c83e757fed4896e65e5614888b47f1f4958912c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, L1ga Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,166
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked L1ga Team | 29c | 10,500$3,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,045 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…5eeebacked L1ga Team | 28c | 7,974$2,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,230 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50ac…a924backed PARIVISION | 71c | 5,817$4,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,687 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5038…6236backed PARIVISION | 72c | 5,059$3,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,417.56 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5e…1468backed PARIVISION | 71c | 2,488$1,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.58 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked PARIVISION | 72c | 2,079$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.45 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed L1ga Team | 32c | 1,786$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.61 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…fa91backed PARIVISION | 68c | 1,705$1,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.66 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed PARIVISION | 70c | 948.61$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.8 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed PARIVISION | 71c | 870$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.3 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed L1ga Team | 32c | 630$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed PARIVISION | 72c | 627.78$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.78 | 246 | 36.6%90 W · 156 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed PARIVISION | 68c | 441.18$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 340 | 51.5%175 W · 165 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed L1ga Team | 28c | 299.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd5…12a2backed PARIVISION | 71c | 297.44$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd95d…2ab5backed PARIVISION | 71c | 268.5$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.87 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…8408backed PARIVISION | 73c | 223.96$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed PARIVISION | 72c | 173.09$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 223 | 63.2%141 W · 82 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc9…e4afbacked L1ga Team | 30c | 163.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed PARIVISION | 71c | 163.45$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked PARIVISION | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed L1ga Team | 32c | 131.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…0404backed L1ga Team | 28c | 131.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked PARIVISION | 72c | 126.39$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 131 | 48.1%63 W · 68 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked PARIVISION | 68c | 123.79$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f0…3206backed PARIVISION | 68c | 95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed PARIVISION | 73c | 74.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2b…d422backed L1ga Team | 63c | 59.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 148 | 45.9%68 W · 80 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed PARIVISION | 37c | 56.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…65c5backed PARIVISION | 71c | 53.75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked L1ga Team | 29c | 53.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…b09abacked L1ga Team | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed L1ga Team | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…21a9backed PARIVISION | 72c | 29.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c27…cb5bbacked PARIVISION | 67c | 28.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked PARIVISION | 65c | 23.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed PARIVISION | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed PARIVISION | 69c | 17.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs L1ga Team (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs L1ga Team (BO3) - 1win Essence PlayoffsPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs L1ga Team - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs L1ga Team - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.