Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd5fb18cd42db7f8f920450edd7113340b118a64e67692803185fdc80e9e9fa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, L1ga Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7d4d…8525backed L1ga Team | 15c | 7,368$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.02 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked L1ga Team | 14c | 4,644$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.5 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked L1ga Team | 12c | 4,164$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.18 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…003fbacked L1ga Team | 8c | 3,000$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.24 | 450 | 52.4%236 W · 214 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked L1ga Team | 16c | 1,471$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked L1ga Team | 11c | 1,055$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked L1ga Team | 8c | 1,053$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.34 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…5c4dbacked L1ga Team | 19c | 1,034$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.66 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed L1ga Team | 18c | 697$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.46 | 276 | 36.2%100 W · 176 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x135f…528cbacked L1ga Team | 19c | 532.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed L1ga Team | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed L1ga Team | 18c | 455.59$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9851…1320backed L1ga Team | 10c | 393.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…fef0backed L1ga Team | 4c | 367.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 191 | 45.5%87 W · 104 L | +13.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed L1ga Team | 13c | 292.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed L1ga Team | 12c | 284$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed L1ga Team | 17c | 258$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked L1ga Team | 8c | 236.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked L1ga Team | 10c | 224.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed L1ga Team | 10c | 212.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…62b9backed L1ga Team | 17c | 210$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 654 | 41.9%274 W · 380 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed L1ga Team | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…d81dbacked L1ga Team | 14c | 114.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 563 | 43.9%247 W · 316 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb97e…262bbacked L1ga Team | 14c | 108.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 526 | 49.2%259 W · 267 L | +21.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadf7…830fbacked L1ga Team | 19c | 103.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed L1ga Team | 10c | 102$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 500 | 32.2%161 W · 339 L | -47.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked L1ga Team | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed PARIVISION | 80c | 32.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs L1ga Team (BO3) - 1win Essence PlayoffsPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs L1ga Team - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs L1ga Team (+1.5)PARIVISION won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.