Mls · resolved market
Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08040175e63ad9472a1c1d30da8be0af3c52ed1c5558da70077431088e95df9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 27c | 9,640$2,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,601.45 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 73c | 3,567$2,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.44 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 3,262$2,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.5 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 73c | 953.89$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.55 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 22c | 803.13$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.69 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 73c | 502.61$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.2 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 78c | 467.14$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.94 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 73c | 350$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 27c | 299$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 73c | 255.7$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.55 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 74c | 216.22$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 72c | 184$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 73c | 173$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 73c | 118$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 98 | 48%47 W · 51 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 73c | 102.22$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 72c | 100.39$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 74c | 88.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 73c | 82.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 73c | 48.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 73c | 35.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 74c | 32.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 74c | 32.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 73c | 31.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 77c | 31.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 73c | 29.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 73c | 25.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 73c | 18.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…ba99backed Under | 73c | 16.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 74c | 15.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Under | 73c | 15.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Under | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 73c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Under | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5this page
- Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5)Nashville SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.