Mls · resolved market
Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68973ae260716bb213484f0714e1159c9050248618ec3f11ea99eeae57c1978c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 49c | 20,211$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 48c | 17,752$8,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,495.43 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 52c | 12,545$6,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,031.78 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 7,000$3,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,465.11 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 3,790$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,866.97 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 34c | 3,029$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.65 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 53c | 2,830$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.19 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 51c | 2,816$1,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,374.44 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 2,271$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.78 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 73c | 1,929$1,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.83 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 172 | 58.1%100 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 51c | 1,294$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.1 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Under | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 122 | 63.1%77 W · 45 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 48c | 799.93$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.97 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 50c | 700$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 64c | 591.79$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.56 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 65c | 530.41$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.59 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 53c | 499.99$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.99 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 52c | 453.55$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.15 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 59c | 426.59$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.58 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 52c | 425.13$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.36 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 47c | 422.39$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Under | 53c | 400.19$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 52c | 396$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.33 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Over | 48c | 375.1$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.05 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 50c | 356.41$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.21 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +8.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Over | 26c | 346.27$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 40c | 299.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 50c | 260$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 169 | 60.9%103 W · 66 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 51c | 213.26$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.95 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 48c | 208.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 48c | 207.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 52c | 197$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.49 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 50c | 182$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 12c | 169.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Under | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 117 | 59%69 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 121 | 62%75 W · 46 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc95b…f819backed Under | 53c | 122.64$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Under | 51c | 110.15$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked Under | 53c | 88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Under | 52c | 75.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 52c | 73.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 32c | 68.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Under | 53c | 63.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 48c | 62.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 52c | 59.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80aa…e8eabacked Under | 24c | 57.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.42per pick | 21cpaid | +204.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 49c | 48.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 52c | 47.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Under | 53c | 46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a4…78a2backed Under | 54c | 45.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 38c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +11.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807a…3be2backed Over | 48c | 37.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 46c | 31.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Under | 53c | 28.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 45c | 28.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…95cabacked Under | 53c | 27.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 52c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 53c | 24.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 63c | 22.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5this page
- Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5)Nashville SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.