Mls · resolved market
Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11c25aaa9cc7f8f022a72ededd0f8e747e8e093ff12b7549cdbc1dcb7ade4539
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 2,514$1,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.58 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Over | 34c | 1,471$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 59c | 739.83$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.81 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 48c | 320$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.6 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 52c | 202.63$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.26 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Under | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 72c | 175.01$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.01 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Under | 29c | 156.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.38 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 73c | 144.56$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.5 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Over | 74c | 108.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 73c | 103.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.24 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 73c | 92.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.88 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 59c | 84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4b…839fbacked Over | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 74c | 67.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 28c | 66.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 36c | 63.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 30c | 59.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 35c | 55.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Over | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f01dbacked Under | 28c | 53.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +171.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 48c | 42.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 27c | 41.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a8…daabbacked Over | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -38%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 27c | 39.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 168 | 53.6%90 W · 78 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 72c | 29.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 74c | 29.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC: O/U 1.5this page
- Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)Nashville SC won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5)Nashville SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.