Mls · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cc93d8fb1c9b563787c6defbde15923ad88bc2aa73a54c5e8e259940949938d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nashville SCof Philadelphia Union, Nashville SC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Philadelphia Union | 22c | 25,709$5,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,655.99 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Nashville SC | 78c | 11,719$9,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,578.17 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nashville SC | 78c | 11,356$8,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,507.27 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Nashville SC | 78c | 5,128$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.21 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6551…e043backed Philadelphia Union | 22c | 5,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Philadelphia Union | 23c | 1,295$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Philadelphia Union | 22c | 1,148$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.16 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Nashville SC | 78c | 932.2$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.23 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Nashville SC | 78c | 739.56$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.66 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Nashville SC | 78c | 664.94$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.96 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Nashville SC | 79c | 442.91$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.49 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Nashville SC | 77c | 249.18$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Nashville SC | 77c | 205.67$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Nashville SC | 78c | 202.72$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33c8…68d7backed Philadelphia Union | 22c | 175.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Nashville SC | 78c | 130.21$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Nashville SC | 78c | 111.01$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Nashville SC | 78c | 106.72$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Nashville SC | 78c | 102.56$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -23%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Nashville SC | 78c | 90.32$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Nashville SC | 78c | 89.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Nashville SC | 80c | 87.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 208 | 49.5%103 W · 105 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked Nashville SC | 78c | 86.24$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Philadelphia Union | 21c | 82.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Philadelphia Union | 21c | 78.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Nashville SC | 78c | 65.3$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b7…7491backed Philadelphia Union | 22c | 64.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Nashville SC | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Nashville SC | 78c | 63.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Philadelphia Union | 19c | 61.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Nashville SC | 78c | 58.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Nashville SC | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Nashville SC | 78c | 46.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked Nashville SC | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff66…39cfbacked Nashville SC | 78c | 38.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 65cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dc…460fbacked Nashville SC | 78c | 36.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Nashville SC | 78c | 30.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Nashville SC | 78c | 30.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf7…3412backed Nashville SC | 78c | 27.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x422f…da1abacked Nashville SC | 79c | 27.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…7cc0backed Nashville SC | 79c | 26.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Nashville SC | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Nashville SC | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Nashville SC | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Nashville SC | 78c | 25.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Nashville SC | 78c | 25.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked Nashville SC | 78c | 23.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…ba99backed Nashville SC | 78c | 23.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed Nashville SC | 79c | 22.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…1a0dbacked Nashville SC | 79c | 19.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca2…e2a0backed Nashville SC | 78c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cb…3bbebacked Nashville SC | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Nashville SC | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Nashville SC | 78c | 13.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-1.5)this page
- Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. Nashville SC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5)Philadelphia Union won
- Spread: Philadelphia Union (-2.5)Nashville SC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.