MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x080d6d3ccf61882e200b6c8256f5752b24ac14dd2d6ec186a7c0ae34253edecb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,191
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,191 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac2d…a9c4backed Yes | 50c | 403.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 62c | 315.95$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.91 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked No | 50c | 232.04$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.02 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 41c | 220$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.98 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed No | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 280 | 45.7%128 W · 152 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed No | 51c | 170.81$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.11 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 49c | 139.82$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…39c0backed No | 8c | 129.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4b…556bbacked No | 10c | 119.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked No | 71c | 98.24$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.46 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5d…d375backed No | 50c | 97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 54c | 96.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…2a39backed Yes | 51c | 95.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -44%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 49c | 74.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…b476backed No | 49c | 68.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 29c | 61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e9…d331backed No | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…326dbacked No | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Yes | 51c | 38.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0edb…92c3backed Yes | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ef…813bbacked No | 51c | 30.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c0…244ebacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 219 | 48.4%106 W · 113 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 72c | 29.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed No | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Yes | 51c | 28.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked Yes | 53c | 23.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 198 | 42.9%85 W · 113 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardiansthis page
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 12.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.