TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,629
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$43,237

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,629 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdcfe…44b5backed Under47c3,462$1,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,627.361145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Over53c3,372$1,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,584.915862.1%36 W · 22 L+7.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Over53c2,986$1,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.621,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked Over54c2,625$1,418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,207.728353%44 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Under46c2,500$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15075049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Under52c1,838$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951.4548850.2%245 W · 243 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x055a…12ddbacked Over54c1,224$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.344548.9%22 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Under47c1,030$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.189153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Over53c1,004$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.6853261.8%329 W · 203 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bc0…af1abacked Over47c1,002$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.369147.3%43 W · 48 L+7.8wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+27.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over46c868.22$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.222,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under46c754.92$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3475,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under51c754.05$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.059,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over34c712.62$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.856,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Under55c583.89$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.925,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under56c554.07$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.0210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Under52c491$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.4375344.1%332 W · 421 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f2e…9d0bbacked Under52c474.39$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.686662.1%41 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over41c470.23$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.416,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Over54c450.19$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.093855.3%21 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8811…627cbacked Over47c446.6$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.1555464.1%355 W · 199 L+63.1wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+19.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe235…aba2backed Under70c412.18$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.532466.7%16 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dea…5e23backed Under46c404.26$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.9642550.1%213 W · 212 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over53c364.72$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.3394034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under60c327.37$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.271,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under47c325.01$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.571,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Over36c300$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19210033%33 W · 67 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Under41c290.65$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.766434.4%22 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ac4…a601backed Under52c280.15$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.685341.5%22 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf429…969ebacked Over54c252.5$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.1519842.9%85 W · 113 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30d5…36bfbacked Under63c239.99$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.1920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over56c236.58$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.1114724.5%36 W · 111 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under49c236.28$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3519153.9%103 W · 88 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ebc…01c6backed Under42c230.49$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.519243.5%40 W · 52 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under48c224.15$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1378146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb378…490bbacked Over55c187.13$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Under48c180.35$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.171,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Over51c141.46$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.8782551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9ea…b781backed Under46c107.41$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4156851.4%292 W · 276 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over50c101.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.052,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Under57c100.93$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.571,36754.3%742 W · 625 L+16.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f7…c7a2backed Under48c100.92$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.444740.4%19 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under47c92.25$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3679543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa923…8a4ebacked Under42c89.78$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under28c85.16$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.841,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0011…4cbabacked Under49c79.13$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7830963.1%195 W · 114 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdded…13a2backed Over49c74.37$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6420258.4%118 W · 84 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under47c70.8$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.42,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Over42c70.58$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.2843043%185 W · 245 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed Over49c68.91$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.158550.6%43 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cc…3132backed Under46c67.72$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1511753%62 W · 55 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Under54c67.7$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.371,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ac9…f5ddbacked Over39c61.76$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.678949.4%44 W · 45 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Under48c60.04$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.821,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7048…282dbacked Over49c59.35$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.271546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8702…6304backed Over49c59.35$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.271442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Under49c59.02$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9273748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Over39c56.21$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0451555%283 W · 232 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over54c54.02$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8570455%387 W · 317 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36f9…5445backed Under47c51.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2115858.2%92 W · 66 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Over52c50.1$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.881,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over54c48.62$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3722554.7%123 W · 102 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa516…235cbacked Under51c48.53$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.755442.6%23 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Under49c48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5249942.9%214 W · 285 L-31.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Under55c48$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5655847.7%266 W · 292 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Over53c47.67$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4136157.9%209 W · 152 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd2d…d7f8backed Over53c46.24$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.733234.4%11 W · 21 L-5.8wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-31.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Under55c44.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.532,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed Under48c43.61$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1362554.2%339 W · 286 L+23.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2551…217cbacked Over51c41.87$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.525054%27 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa20d…eadebacked Under47c41.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3620446.6%95 W · 109 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x348f…a206backed Under48c40.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.386254.8%34 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fe5…7936backed Over48c40.37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9919248.4%93 W · 99 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe720…0f1cbacked Under49c39.18$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.393351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x50c3…ace1backed Over49c38.78$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7886653%459 W · 407 L+16.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under49c37.85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.726854.1%145 W · 123 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Under52c37.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.421,19753.9%645 W · 552 L+42.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe33d…9512backed Over38c34.03$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0417244.2%76 W · 96 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd281…d824backed Over48c33.09$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.110449%51 W · 53 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Under48c33.06$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9867742.2%286 W · 391 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b45…db25backed Under61c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.381631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick50cpaid-49.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Under48c29.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.352,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under41c29.04$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.911,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under47c27.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.11,05750.2%531 W · 526 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Over54c27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4244347.9%212 W · 231 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Over41c25.3$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.021,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe54d…fea1backed Under52c20.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.831145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x913f…837abacked Over53c20.41$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.591850%9 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x523c…2c05backed Under54c19.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7913053.1%69 W · 61 L-11.0wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.