TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Houston Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,942
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,685

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,942 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6498…8910backed Cleveland Guardians65c11,863$7,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,094.0551756.5%292 W · 225 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Cleveland Guardians41c6,451$2,664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,786.241,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros36c4,972$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,790.0810,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b10…acabbacked Houston Astros33c3,812$1,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,257.88446.4%39 W · 45 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Houston Astros58c2,973$1,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,724.265450%27 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Houston Astros60c2,500$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.9233852.7%178 W · 160 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed Houston Astros59c2,225$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,312.623441.2%14 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Houston Astros60c2,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2001,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros47c1,218$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.39,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Houston Astros36c1,015$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.025754.4%31 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros58c1,000$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5846,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Cleveland Guardians40c999.99$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6001,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7851…d471backed Cleveland Guardians42c868.68$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.8316644.6%74 W · 92 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Cleveland Guardians40c806.87$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.1292054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Houston Astros24c672.16$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.936,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Houston Astros60c500$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Houston Astros61c491.23$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.6572648.1%349 W · 377 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Cleveland Guardians41c480$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.254048.3%261 W · 279 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56e0…1a3bbacked Cleveland Guardians42c459.62$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.5811942.9%51 W · 68 L+9.3wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros54c428.92$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.156,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xce39…04d6backed Cleveland Guardians36c400.01$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2566048.3%29 W · 31 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Houston Astros33c390.44$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.845450%27 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d3d…33e9backed Houston Astros64c383.91$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.7425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Cleveland Guardians40c379.65$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.796442.2%27 W · 37 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a93…c3eabacked Cleveland Guardians40c378.37$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.0226545.7%121 W · 144 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf984…5098backed Cleveland Guardians53c367.23$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.884042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Cleveland Guardians55c357.25$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.4951555%283 W · 232 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Houston Astros60c341.6$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.961,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Houston Astros16c339.96$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.393,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Cleveland Guardians46c300$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16210033%33 W · 67 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Cleveland Guardians40c241$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.656946.9%267 W · 302 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Cleveland Guardians41c235.27$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.811,19550%597 W · 598 L+5.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8811…627cbacked Houston Astros73c205.1$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.7455464.1%355 W · 199 L+63.1wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+19.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Cleveland Guardians39c202.46$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.71,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Cleveland Guardians40c202.44$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.4648354.7%264 W · 219 L+20.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cleveland Guardians40c201.19$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.711,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbd…3d15backed Houston Astros58c191.3$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.9518648.4%90 W · 96 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Cleveland Guardians41c185.17$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.2511456.1%64 W · 50 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Cleveland Guardians61c176.74$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.842,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Houston Astros22c156.74$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.321,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaea…4bbfbacked Houston Astros40c143.11$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.248652.3%45 W · 41 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+29.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Houston Astros15c130.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6470154.2%380 W · 321 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Houston Astros59c126.95$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3950949.5%252 W · 257 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36f9…5445backed Cleveland Guardians48c126.44$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.8115858.2%92 W · 66 L+8.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros59c125.12$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.825,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Houston Astros60c120$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7223255.2%128 W · 104 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Cleveland Guardians41c117.63$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.452449%257 W · 267 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2494…17b3backed Houston Astros33c116.34$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.393839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Houston Astros17c114$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3849942.9%214 W · 285 L-31.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ce5…a07fbacked Houston Astros33c107.61$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.512937.9%11 W · 18 L-4.0wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-27.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Cleveland Guardians51c94.57$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4182551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x636a…18fdbacked Houston Astros64c88.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Houston Astros60c83.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509444.7%42 W · 52 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Houston Astros59c82.2$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.871,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Cleveland Guardians51c81.82$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.321,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x66df…7ea5backed Houston Astros60c81.33$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.86857.4%39 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3492…969abacked Houston Astros33c72.71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-40.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7770…f99bbacked Cleveland Guardians42c69.33$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.216446.9%30 W · 34 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-16.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe697…708fbacked Houston Astros59c66.13$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0222949.8%114 W · 115 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Houston Astros59c65.86$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8639948.1%192 W · 207 L-1.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed Houston Astros61c64.04$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0648150.7%244 W · 237 L-19.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0764…41d1backed Houston Astros57c63.32$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.093865.8%25 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Cleveland Guardians35c61.18$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.841,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Houston Astros38c59.43$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6584122.7%191 W · 650 L-81.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.51,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae51…0d08backed Cleveland Guardians55c45.95$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6836440.1%146 W · 218 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb39b…14c9backed Cleveland Guardians41c41$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.194045%18 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Cleveland Guardians37c40.95$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.914340.6%58 W · 85 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fb5…b009backed Cleveland Guardians53c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.86445.3%29 W · 35 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Cleveland Guardians40c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2449649.8%247 W · 249 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Cleveland Guardians41c38.58$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.7622554.7%123 W · 102 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Houston Astros59c38.02$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4339553.7%212 W · 183 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Houston Astros59c37.75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2765549.3%323 W · 332 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Houston Astros46c37.71$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.21,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Houston Astros59c37.56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1673748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Houston Astros43c36.69$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.644,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Cleveland Guardians46c36.59$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7366749.3%329 W · 338 L-22.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Cleveland Guardians40c36.15$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.6944347.9%212 W · 231 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Cleveland Guardians49c35.88$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1629047.6%138 W · 152 L-11.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x362d…0c58backed Cleveland Guardians80c35.71$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.35756.1%32 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9825…9ffcbacked Houston Astros55c35.38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4618444%81 W · 103 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Cleveland Guardians41c35.3$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.832,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe727…f6e1backed Houston Astros59c34.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.992254.5%12 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c5e…8950backed Houston Astros63c32.57$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a0e…b0babacked Houston Astros60c32.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.526240.3%25 W · 37 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x60d8…85f8backed Houston Astros60c32.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.213644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Cleveland Guardians64c28.75$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.355,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2c8…d506backed Houston Astros55c28.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.575442.6%23 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcac9…47a9backed Cleveland Guardians40c27.54$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.52450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick34cpaid+22%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Cleveland Guardians39c26.56$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.275344.1%332 W · 421 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1fc…5da8backed Cleveland Guardians43c25.62$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.725341.5%22 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ee6…f017backed Houston Astros61c23.93$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.65442.6%23 W · 31 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-16.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdded…13a2backed Houston Astros80c22$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5520258.4%118 W · 84 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Houston Astros61c20.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.781,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8941…83d7backed Houston Astros61c19.53$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9115351.6%79 W · 74 L-0.7wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd78e…6421backed Houston Astros60c19.52$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7123750.6%120 W · 117 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Houston Astros60c18.58$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.152,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Houston Astros67c15.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.592,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.