Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0817d6401df087423a30575cbe5844d5900422d66f45d70d5c8d7bfe661ef4f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 14c | 253.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 14c | 198.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 182.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 34c | 139.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.82 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 27c | 129.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.68 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 127.98$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.43 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 9c | 119.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 27c | 103.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.71 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 33c | 91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 58c | 76.47$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 23c | 63.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 80c | 63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 43c | 59.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 33c | 51.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 55c | 47.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 46.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 26c | 44.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 73c | 40.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…6854backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fa…4531backed Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 319 | 36.1%115 W · 204 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 66c | 34.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 33c | 33.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96fe…6a5ebacked No | 75c | 33.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 65c | 30.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 54c | 27.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 48c | 27.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd6…2a5fbacked No | 75c | 26.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 66c | 21.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 56c | 18.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.