Fifa International · resolved market
Norway to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0858b03d6c770ccdc3feff6eca16fc2c08da9007a36bd554e1eaa50836b324ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 70c | 3,974$2,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,190.52 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked No | 32c | 2,574$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.18 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 31c | 999.98$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.99 | 1,075 | 45.2%486 W · 589 L | +41.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4a…afd7backed Yes | 67c | 907.46$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.46 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…e900backed No | 30c | 674.49$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.89 | 364 | 37.1%135 W · 229 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…d227backed No | 38c | 627.61$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.49 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 510.24$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.43 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43e3…43f7backed No | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 232 | 30.2%70 W · 162 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 69c | 460.86$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.12 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c2…e754backed Yes | 67c | 410.48$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.46 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +31%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 31c | 402.77$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.86 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 31c | 402.6$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.13 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6621…22ccbacked Yes | 69c | 347.83$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.83 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…2fc4backed Yes | 72c | 319.44$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf077…748abacked Yes | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 29c | 259.59$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 1,669 | 41.6%694 W · 975 L | +15.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 68c | 239.08$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.87 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed No | 27c | 212.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | +14.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…2c8dbacked No | 27c | 212.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 434 | 60.4%262 W · 172 L | +33.5wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc61…bc17backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5c…02b5backed Yes | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x851f…642fbacked Yes | 62c | 128.77$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 174 | 44.8%78 W · 96 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Yes | 72c | 124.71$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 374 | 58.8%220 W · 154 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ac…6b83backed Yes | 73c | 109.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 197 | 48.7%96 W · 101 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed No | 31c | 63.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 195 | 45.6%89 W · 106 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b55dbacked Yes | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 31c | 51.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,151 | 58.5%673 W · 478 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…b0ccbacked Yes | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 177 | 38.4%68 W · 109 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca01…6f4fbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Norway to win the second half?this page
- Iraq to win the second half?No won
- Iraq vs. Norway: Second half draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.