Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 78°F or higher on February 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x086c696f901cb2744fb8cc664dff20a6dc888f4aaa3e6baee0de223c9f21ec04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 42c | 371.11$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.24 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 75c | 277.16$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.6 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 13c | 216.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked No | 77c | 171$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.51 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed Yes | 30c | 166.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.29 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 156.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 129.22$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 26c | 113.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.51 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 42c | 103$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.08 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 101.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…facdbacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 31c | 98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.53 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 26c | 96.73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.48 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbf…7df7backed Yes | 75c | 93.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 18c | 84.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.43 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 18c | 80.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x632f…14aabacked Yes | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 70.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 78c | 69.34$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed Yes | 40c | 68.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 54c | 58.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5d…3961backed Yes | 25c | 52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 21c | 51.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 36c | 50.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 77c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 46.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a62…ace3backed No | 78c | 46.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed Yes | 23c | 45.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 72c | 39.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe14b…5a48backed No | 72c | 37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -4.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…a68bbacked No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…8d60backed No | 62c | 32.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 69c | 32.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 47c | 30.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe643…4539backed No | 60c | 29.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 49c | 29.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 78c | 26.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…1640backed No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…ee84backed No | 78c | 24.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed Yes | 44c | 23.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 69c | 21.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d4…d382backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…446cbacked No | 75c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…aff3backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 78°F or higher on February 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on February 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on February 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.