NHL · resolved market
Blues vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08a1d0df93313e496a143968f7423c3f8ccae57cad2bea77cad69095ad673094
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9d1…4660backed Under | 2c | 2,575$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 294 | 12.9%38 W · 256 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb6…2abbbacked Under | 3c | 1,900$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 107 | 6.5%7 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8307…ad90backed Under | 3c | 1,894$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 40c | 1,876$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.2 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…1697backed Over | 46c | 1,816$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.49 | 670 | 51%342 W · 328 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 10c | 1,756$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.99 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 6c | 1,333$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.98 | 217 | 4.1%9 W · 208 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 72c | 1,206$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.77 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 54c | 1,151$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.29 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 26c | 716.93$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.39 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 46c | 699.99$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 54c | 532.77$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.7 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 63c | 525.5$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.06 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 34c | 454.63$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.15 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 56c | 414$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.1 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 44c | 382.79$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.36 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 54c | 314.81$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 58c | 290.4$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.91 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 54c | 214.81$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1df…4404backed Under | 12c | 206.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 52c | 180.62$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 54c | 150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Under | 15c | 112.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 112.39$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…9efebacked Under | 54c | 108.11$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 42c | 81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 53c | 64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 312 | 57.4%179 W · 133 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 524 | 51%267 W · 257 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9672…e185backed Over | 51c | 35.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 45c | 33.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 56c | 32.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…bb49backed Under | 54c | 27.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blues vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5this page
- Blues vs. AvalancheAvalanche won
- Blues vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.