Mls · resolved market
Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08cfdcc6614d9a67747e309065dc122fcc61e7b79ec0b46a4235f503429bc630
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota United FCof Real Salt Lake, Minnesota United FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Real Salt Lake | 21c | 1,925$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.13 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Minnesota United FC | 59c | 1,112$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.74 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Real Salt Lake | 41c | 487.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.76 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ec…a9c4backed Real Salt Lake | 41c | 487.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.76 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota United FC | 76c | 395.65$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.96 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Real Salt Lake | 15c | 247.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Real Salt Lake | 12c | 227$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Real Salt Lake | 24c | 204.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Real Salt Lake | 12c | 172.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Real Salt Lake | 18c | 137$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Minnesota United FC | 76c | 125.77$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Real Salt Lake | 41c | 121.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Real Salt Lake | 26c | 103.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Real Salt Lake | 12c | 91.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Minnesota United FC | 73c | 72.68$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Minnesota United FC | 73c | 61.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Minnesota United FC | 76c | 61.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc9…bf01backed Minnesota United FC | 76c | 26.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Minnesota United FC | 77c | 22.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b8…408cbacked Minnesota United FC | 77c | 15.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +86%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Minnesota United FC | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2f…fe3fbacked Minnesota United FC | 77c | 13.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5Over won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5Under won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5Under won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.