Mls · resolved market
Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dde51893764b261829a4f0c311ec55398009b0bc5693447755599a35e2f20c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,493
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,493 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 6c | 5,334$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.06 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 31c | 1,965$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.62 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -8.1wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 38c | 1,729$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x374a…03edbacked Under | 62c | 929.9$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.36 | 122 | 63.1%77 W · 45 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 72c | 703.74$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.71 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 77c | 620.08$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.46 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 55c | 538.09$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.14 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf4…952ebacked Over | 32c | 362.01$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 75c | 309.4$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.71 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 23c | 299.72$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 287.24$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.82 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc076…d987backed Under | 77c | 223.25$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 64c | 195$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 63c | 190.48$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.48 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 66c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 36c | 121.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.74 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…b4cabacked Under | 64c | 111$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 135 | 60.7%82 W · 53 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 25c | 96.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 21c | 88.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 78c | 54.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 43c | 45.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 33c | 40.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Over | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Under | 70c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 63c | 29.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaed4…4cc9backed Under | 79c | 25.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…b97cbacked Over | 42c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 63c | 24.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 65c | 23.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 57c | 18.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d76…517cbacked Under | 79c | 18.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 64c | 18.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5this page
- Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5Over won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5Under won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)Minnesota United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.