Mls · resolved market
Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd57470e92f8cdd3712910edb4dad7b6613825b2b7a13aaa32799badf6d3846a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Over | 54c | 4,671$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,171.48 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 64c | 3,827$2,454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,372.16 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 38c | 2,740$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.92 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 39c | 1,913$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.35 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 31c | 1,518$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.87 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 24c | 1,457$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.76 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 46c | 1,330$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.16 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 33c | 857.86$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.08 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Under | 18c | 823.17$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Under | 51c | 798.98$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 44c | 715.43$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.98 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 77c | 647.77$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.77 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf0…72cebacked Under | 50c | 596.09$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.81 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 18c | 498.93$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.81 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 41c | 356.27$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.89 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…5d3abacked Over | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 73cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…fa81backed Over | 69c | 289.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x127b…ac34backed Over | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6faf…de48backed Over | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32c…be8bbacked Over | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 71c | 232$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 68c | 220.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.71 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 74c | 218.05$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.54 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 70c | 206.65$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.55 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 28c | 176.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.4 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +13.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x27d3…0764backed Over | 55c | 162.16$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20b…3ae4backed Over | 77c | 149.35$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 41c | 144.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba84…26efbacked Over | 72c | 138.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d970backed Over | 75c | 134$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 66c | 106.14$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 24c | 106$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 54c | 100.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.46 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b9…70aebacked Over | 42c | 100.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 40c | 82.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 17c | 73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 46c | 72$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc45a…1565backed Under | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Over | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9958…b9acbacked Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…0bb1backed Over | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 32c | 35.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf94c…8a42backed Over | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19a4…a65bbacked Over | 73c | 27.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Over | 62c | 25.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…1edcbacked Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Over | 79c | 20.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7776…5bdcbacked Over | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Over | 73c | 13.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 1.5this page
- Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 2.5Under won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 3.5Under won
- Minnesota United FC vs. Real Salt Lake: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-2.5)Real Salt Lake won
- Spread: Real Salt Lake (-1.5)Minnesota United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.