Tennis · resolved market
ATP Finals: Zverev vs. Alcaraz
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08e275eb615e24ada1b87c4a80d3aa4b93d6179bed45cbd1cd95de3afce38262
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zverevof Zverev, Alcaraz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Alcaraz | 35c | 12,041$4,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,194.66 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…75aabacked Zverev | 46c | 4,612$2,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,510.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb2…c8bfbacked Zverev | 48c | 3,215$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,657.64 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f8…c356backed Alcaraz | 55c | 2,223$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Alcaraz | 32c | 1,996$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.84 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Zverev | 56c | 1,690$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Alcaraz | 50c | 1,426$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed Zverev | 74c | 1,200$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.4 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0a…63abbacked Alcaraz | 32c | 1,187$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.14 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31cf…8834backed Zverev | 79c | 1,010$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.55 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Zverev | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Zverev | 47c | 999.98$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.99 | 158 | 60.8%96 W · 62 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed Zverev | 51c | 893.93$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Alcaraz | 34c | 789.45$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.98 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Zverev | 48c | 701.3$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.3 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7569…79ebbacked Alcaraz | 52c | 641$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Alcaraz | 54c | 585.42$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ed…27bcbacked Zverev | 56c | 537.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.41 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Zverev | 49c | 535.22$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.96 | 133 | 56.4%75 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed Alcaraz | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…5607backed Zverev | 48c | 471.58$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.52 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Alcaraz | 55c | 416.66$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…7cd3backed Zverev | 50c | 410$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1cb…3accbacked Zverev | 48c | 357.67$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.57 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…f625backed Zverev | 49c | 331.29$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.96 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee9d…63e1backed Zverev | 50c | 318.84$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed Alcaraz | 52c | 283.4$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…c6e3backed Alcaraz | 52c | 241$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd968…bd18backed Alcaraz | 53c | 208.42$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Zverev | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Alcaraz | 52c | 191.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.73 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Alcaraz | 54c | 189.37$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b0…4013backed Alcaraz | 28c | 173.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b29…d0a8backed Alcaraz | 19c | 163.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Zverev | 45c | 149.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed Alcaraz | 32c | 121.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Zverev | 77c | 118.59$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed Zverev | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32f…e1bfbacked Alcaraz | 27c | 73.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Zverev | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…7ad5backed Zverev | 48c | 54.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Zverev | 49c | 53.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Zverev | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…fc1ebacked Alcaraz | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c3…61ebbacked Zverev | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +93%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Zverev | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Alcaraz | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 527 | 50.3%265 W · 262 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Alcaraz | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Zverev | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3e…9c71backed Zverev | 50c | 29.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…e13cbacked Alcaraz | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Zverev | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1f…aa3dbacked Alcaraz | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Alcaraz | 52c | 21.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b0…19dbbacked Zverev | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.