Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08ed629a41ef387d29a7fc4bbcd0325800c354a4be9595fcb921ae81330827f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,482
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,482 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 13c | 1,300$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.67 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 7c | 738.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.24 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 10c | 617$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 9c | 500.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 18c | 495.84$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.55 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 9c | 398.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 12c | 391.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.67 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed Yes | 17c | 328.1$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 11c | 317.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 29c | 282.89$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fe…580bbacked Yes | 10c | 273.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 10c | 261.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 10c | 260$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd394…7e90backed Yes | 5c | 257.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 6cpaid | +141.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 49c | 242.79$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 236.36$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 15c | 207.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 173 | 10.4%18 W · 155 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 29c | 194.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 9c | 191.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 71c | 172.07$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 9c | 167.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…8d6dbacked Yes | 10c | 166.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 8c | 149.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 13c | 149.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 55c | 135.57$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked Yes | 34c | 120.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 11c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 109$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 10c | 99.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 15c | 88.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…a5f9backed Yes | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…6eb1backed Yes | 19c | 59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed Yes | 34c | 55.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ee…edcbbacked Yes | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 75c | 41.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 77c | 32.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c42…576abacked No | 70c | 28.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 59c | 27.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.