Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8a5dbc440b41a6ca517c8ec26f7be79f8535f2c758a71c63c79db0faae2e466
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,380
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,380 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 153 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5556…d729backed Yes | 27c | 931.59$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.36 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 58c | 528.08$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.65 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 39c | 472.24$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.96 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 71c | 432.09$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.24 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 29c | 427.92$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.16 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 67c | 416.2$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.31 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…7fa2backed Yes | 27c | 397.44$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.31 | 182 | 19.2%35 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 36c | 377.72$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.41 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 319.89$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.93 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 41c | 272.21$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.37 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 31c | 232.54$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.5 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 67c | 223.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.54 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 47c | 207.65$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.59 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 20c | 204.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.41 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed Yes | 60c | 180.68$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c2…52c2backed Yes | 65c | 180.28$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 42c | 176.49$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.36 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 72c | 172.83$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 56c | 169$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.69 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 55c | 166.78$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.03 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 60c | 163.81$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.48 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 32c | 162.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 162.3$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 36c | 161.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.15 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 11c | 157.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 77c | 155.56$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.34 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 72c | 154$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.82 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 49c | 150.22$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.9 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…66b0backed Yes | 37c | 149.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed No | 59c | 148.29$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 25c | 147.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.03 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 145.96$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.65 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 22c | 145.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed Yes | 27c | 143.7$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 58c | 138.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 38c | 129.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 65c | 125.63$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 70c | 119.97$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 65c | 107.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed Yes | 80c | 106$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 104$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 51c | 103.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.98 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…9d35backed Yes | 31c | 99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 72c | 98.14$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 73c | 97.44$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 56c | 90.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.92 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 37c | 88.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed Yes | 44c | 88.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…346abacked Yes | 57c | 88.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 32c | 80.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 25c | 80.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 22c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 74.95$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 30c | 74.22$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.73 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b02…abdfbacked No | 49c | 73.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 70.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 72c | 69.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 30c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…e166backed Yes | 35c | 67.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 67.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 66.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04e…122ebacked Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 38c | 62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd24…f9d6backed Yes | 73c | 61.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.1wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 62c | 59.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed No | 53c | 58.55$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 73c | 57.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 56c | 56.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 56.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 36c | 55.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 37c | 54.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 41c | 54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 69c | 53.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 53c | 53.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 56c | 52.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a1…5e41backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 43c | 51.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x118b…38c8backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 42.4%36 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…caffbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…6049backed No | 55c | 49.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 40c | 48.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed No | 31c | 47.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 45c | 46.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 59c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 36c | 44.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7eb…da58backed Yes | 49c | 43.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 43c | 42.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 47c | 42.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6c…7eafbacked No | 71c | 41.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.