Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc270c92d6ff02206d75117184190c268870fa3a4a676dc0d21aa6a57ffd1e2a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed Yes | 41c | 767.81$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.07 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 63c | 663.5$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.03 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed No | 54c | 600$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.81 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7b…7a75backed No | 63c | 564.69$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.59 | 271 | 29.2%79 W · 192 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 43c | 557.63$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.82 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 61c | 501.31$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.24 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 42c | 456$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.39 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 74c | 353.5$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.83 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 51c | 334.5$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.59 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 55c | 327.25$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.23 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 305.72$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.28 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 15c | 283.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed No | 56c | 260.52$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a5…0e36backed No | 72c | 228.1$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.09 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 221.86$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.93 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 48c | 213.96$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…d729backed No | 60c | 200$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 7c | 199.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.98 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 51c | 197.41$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.68 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 196.1$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 21c | 177.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.72 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked Yes | 36c | 173.45$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.14 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 32c | 149.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 50c | 147.23$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 22c | 139.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.34 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 24c | 134.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.38 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 54c | 133.8$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.7 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 60c | 130.19$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.08 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 45c | 127.85$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.32 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 126.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 54c | 112.38$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 32c | 105.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.87 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 104.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…9d35backed Yes | 19c | 104.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.44 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 43c | 103.56$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 23c | 103.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.24 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 48c | 101.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 70c | 101.63$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 100.94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0546…17a9backed No | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20f9…9577backed Yes | 39c | 99.79$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.87 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 96.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…ee15backed Yes | 37c | 92.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 72c | 91.47$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 30c | 90.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 46c | 89.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 58c | 88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 35c | 86.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c63…8448backed Yes | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 40c | 85.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 81.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…8503backed Yes | 35c | 75.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 49c | 75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 67c | 73.95$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 53c | 73.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 47c | 72.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…8d6dbacked Yes | 28c | 68.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +39%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked No | 65c | 66.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 55c | 65.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7560…0402backed Yes | 46c | 65.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 20c | 64.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 64.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 59c | 64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked No | 78c | 63.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 48c | 62.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 36c | 61.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 20c | 58.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 55c | 56.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 56.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 35c | 56.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 47c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 40c | 53.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 26c | 53.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.54 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 50.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 58c | 50.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…f0a1backed Yes | 35c | 49.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…6570backed No | 54c | 49.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 48c | 49.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc070…b6a5backed No | 53c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 46.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 28c | 45.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…6eb1backed No | 63c | 45.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 52c | 45.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 45c | 42.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 41.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 58c | 39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec9d…ee3cbacked Yes | 47c | 38.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.