Serie A · resolved market
ACF Fiorentina vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0922ef796ed3edfc7d8d07ee6f2381cd1eb2017a7dae5d738a82c3d1df597d30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 4c | 2,652$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.09 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 8c | 1,689$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.24 | 511 | 39.1%200 W · 311 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 29c | 1,183$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.47 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 8c | 1,153$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.49 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 22c | 767.13$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.43 | 308 | 28.9%89 W · 219 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…a7ebbacked Under | 71c | 676.31$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 8c | 590.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc68a…07f0backed Under | 70c | 476.97$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 6c | 439.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 70c | 388.57$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.57 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Over | 18c | 380.32$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 7c | 153.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c0…7a69backed Under | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 30c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | +11.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95c0…f0c5backed Over | 31c | 95.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…41dfbacked Over | 31c | 92.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 71c | 49.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 152 | 59.9%91 W · 61 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e35…ee1abacked Under | 75c | 32.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 74cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 71c | 29.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…d14fbacked Under | 71c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6769…f8b9backed Under | 71c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed Under | 71c | 27.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 71c | 19.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ACF Fiorentina vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 3.5this page
- ACF Fiorentina vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 1.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-1.5)US Sassuolo Calcio won
- Spread: ACF Fiorentina (-2.5)US Sassuolo Calcio won
- Spread: US Sassuolo Calcio (-1.5)ACF Fiorentina won
- Spread: US Sassuolo Calcio (-2.5)ACF Fiorentina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.