Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0933a942786f887e5a2dfcf735934be3e8f9a4ea769a8a1447ef2b71c496122e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,047$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.39 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…82dabacked No | 49c | 740.97$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.34 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b22…6f69backed Yes | 37c | 593.01$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.95 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 221.29$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.04 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 7c | 199.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 195.27$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 51c | 124$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 51c | 105.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 105.04$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.15 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 53c | 102.09$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 52c | 83.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 71.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 34c | 69.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 52c | 69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed No | 68c | 63.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 128 | 53.9%69 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 75c | 54.26$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 21c | 53.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 55c | 47.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 32c | 40.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 32c | 35.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 51c | 35.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 45c | 26.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x466c…f78dbacked Yes | 55c | 26.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 56c | 26.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 46c | 25.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 57c | 21.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0849…2497backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…6ae9backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 67c | 17.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on August 22?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on August 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 21°C on August 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on August 22?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on August 22?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 25°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.