Other European Leagues · resolved market
Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09398a06751de96f32b37bccb6b013b98d2e23a984252a6417168cd43038cb9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SC Heerenveenof AFC Ajax, SC Heerenveen
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa6f…1dfebacked SC Heerenveen | 56c | 12,498$7,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,498.01 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed AFC Ajax | 50c | 9,097$4,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,548.43 | 2,001 | 36.5%730 W · 1,271 L | -25.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x282f…7c4ebacked SC Heerenveen | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked AFC Ajax | 44c | 4,798$2,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,111.12 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked AFC Ajax | 44c | 4,588$2,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,023.75 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SC Heerenveen | 47c | 2,429$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,298.15 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked AFC Ajax | 45c | 1,968$886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.6 | 211 | 51.7%109 W · 102 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…961ebacked AFC Ajax | 45c | 1,772$797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.31 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed AFC Ajax | 44c | 1,348$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.2 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…6428backed SC Heerenveen | 55c | 1,109$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf148…0b4fbacked SC Heerenveen | 56c | 1,071$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked AFC Ajax | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x547f…2937backed SC Heerenveen | 56c | 856.7$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.95 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed SC Heerenveen | 40c | 518.75$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.73 | 2,012 | 35.5%714 W · 1,298 L | -27.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed AFC Ajax | 51c | 436$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.44 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed AFC Ajax | 45c | 315.67$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.05 | 1,434 | 37.7%540 W · 894 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed SC Heerenveen | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked AFC Ajax | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed SC Heerenveen | 55c | 192$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.15 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4c…5695backed AFC Ajax | 45c | 130$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed AFC Ajax | 44c | 112.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.38 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x853e…f16abacked SC Heerenveen | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed AFC Ajax | 45c | 85.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 734 | 40.1%294 W · 440 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed SC Heerenveen | 56c | 82.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 911 | 48%437 W · 474 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7778…0637backed SC Heerenveen | 48c | 74.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked AFC Ajax | 36c | 66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 323 | 50.2%162 W · 161 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed AFC Ajax | 44c | 66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -53%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed AFC Ajax | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 140 | 50%70 W · 70 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7c…c310backed SC Heerenveen | 56c | 52.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked AFC Ajax | 45c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 297 | 54.5%162 W · 135 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed AFC Ajax | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 92 | 58.7%54 W · 38 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed SC Heerenveen | 53c | 31.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 126 | 64.3%81 W · 45 L | +16.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked AFC Ajax | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 638 | 49.5%316 W · 322 L | +26.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked SC Heerenveen | 37c | 30.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked SC Heerenveen | 55c | 29.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 260 | 51.5%134 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…5d6ebacked SC Heerenveen | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed AFC Ajax | 44c | 29.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 187 | 56.1%105 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1be7…a6e3backed SC Heerenveen | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed AFC Ajax | 44c | 27.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 370 | 49.5%183 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…70ffbacked AFC Ajax | 45c | 26.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed SC Heerenveen | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked AFC Ajax | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 338 | 53.3%180 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…22a9backed SC Heerenveen | 56c | 23.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-1.5)this page
- AFC Ajax vs. SC Heerenveen: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. SC Heerenveen: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. SC Heerenveen: AFC Ajax O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. SC Heerenveen: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- AFC Ajax vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 1.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 2.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 3.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 4.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. SC Heerenveen: O/U 5.5Under won
- AFC Ajax vs. SC Heerenveen: SC Heerenveen 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. SC Heerenveen: SC Heerenveen O/U 0.5Over won
- AFC Ajax vs. SC Heerenveen: SC Heerenveen O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: AFC Ajax (-2.5)SC Heerenveen won
- Spread: SC Heerenveen (-1.5)AFC Ajax won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.