Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0948e056733ff9a107f59156dc455ca9373d80f2c5466e14a418e760dcc266e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc690…5231backed Yes | 45c | 456.04$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…df29backed Yes | 40c | 174.93$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.56 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 146.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 44c | 100.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 52c | 96.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 56c | 88.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.94 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8850…d68dbacked No | 58c | 86.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.27 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 58c | 83.24$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 81.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 64c | 78.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 70.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 66c | 70.59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 36c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 44c | 68.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 60.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.56 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 55c | 58.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 55.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 55c | 54.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 58c | 51.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 64c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 49.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 61c | 45.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 55c | 41.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf223…7d74backed Yes | 48c | 41.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 27c | 40.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 45c | 39.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 64c | 39.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 39c | 34.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 58c | 34.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x314b…4681backed No | 64c | 31.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b18…bd24backed Yes | 49c | 30.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…c64dbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…9847backed Yes | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 45c | 29.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 53c | 29.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 61c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 54c | 24.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 53c | 24.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 23.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 56c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x278a…dfddbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…d9adbacked No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.