Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18b16aaca00f9df25be4f1e151ce6a1b928d61b9723c11f623d8c966713ff4a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed No | 75c | 1,712$1,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,284.88 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 17c | 1,138$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.34 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 2c | 1,111$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 1c | 989.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 46c | 909.48$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.47 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 20c | 441.86$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.86 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 47c | 420.5$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.9 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 10c | 355.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 270.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 68c | 264.49$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.3 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 40c | 252.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.03 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 36c | 247.14$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.45 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 37c | 190.41$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.96 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…df29backed Yes | 30c | 171.15$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.32 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 52c | 166.9$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.54 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 159.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.03 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 41c | 152.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 149.64$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.58 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 19c | 136$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.16 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 16c | 129.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.78 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 124.93$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.65 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 25c | 120.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.36 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 21c | 118.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.21 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 62c | 111.8$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 101.59$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 27c | 101.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 16c | 93.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.18 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1048…e362backed Yes | 20c | 92.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.7 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +62%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 62c | 91.32$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.43 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 24c | 87.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 34c | 83.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 68c | 69.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.32 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 32c | 67.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 24c | 62.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 72c | 61.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 73c | 60.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1153…707fbacked Yes | 37c | 59.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.58 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 68c | 58.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 30c | 58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 66c | 58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 50c | 52.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed Yes | 54c | 51.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cb…396ebacked Yes | 36c | 49.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 38c | 48.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.96 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 31c | 48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553c…230fbacked No | 68c | 48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 37c | 47.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 71c | 45.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 32c | 38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 27c | 36.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.91 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 71c | 36.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 70c | 34.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66d9…3146backed No | 72c | 30.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 63c | 29.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked Yes | 63c | 27.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 59c | 24.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 73c | 22.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1a…9d0abacked No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab6…0a4cbacked No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…7948backed No | 65c | 19.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a04…1152backed No | 73c | 19.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95a…ae00backed No | 77c | 18.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked Yes | 70c | 14.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.