Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f02093238ef0f9e07a83dfe7efcc769e44477ebcf23298290c1aea1495b2d7e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,673$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 2c | 743$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 262.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 25c | 207.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…5dd1backed No | 77c | 163.37$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 77c | 106$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 101.82$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…c64dbacked No | 75c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 27c | 86.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 20c | 84.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 24c | 79.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 79c | 67.51$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…2f3cbacked Yes | 26c | 61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 21c | 59.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81c…d3cbbacked Yes | 26c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x400f…917abacked No | 74c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c8…501bbacked No | 74c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -48%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…df29backed No | 76c | 39.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d1…7ab7backed No | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 26.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 72c | 25.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 77c | 18.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.