Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bae70e412cd28367e6f3eb80902bd988a5fe7224b06ff43b1fcd01a8297890b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 46c | 910.25$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 8c | 837.76$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1847…d94abacked Yes | 2c | 731.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 6c | 431.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…7ce5backed No | 22c | 336.32$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.32 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked Yes | 5c | 270.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 5c | 249$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 12c | 246.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 5c | 206.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 62c | 202.39$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.47 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 8c | 193.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 6c | 188.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 14c | 181.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 43c | 172.05$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.66 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 60c | 166.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 162.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 40c | 150.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 43c | 128.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.65 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…df29backed Yes | 49c | 118.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…1ca5backed Yes | 9c | 116.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…4c4cbacked Yes | 13c | 113.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 30c | 111.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 69c | 75.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 68c | 74.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked Yes | 48c | 62.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked Yes | 66c | 61.49$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 35c | 58.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd293…73f6backed Yes | 60c | 50.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4535…4c7ebacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +111.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 50c | 49.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 38c | 47.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 51c | 39.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed Yes | 33c | 39.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 40c | 37.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 34.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…7948backed No | 42c | 33.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 60c | 33.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed No | 68c | 30.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805e…27f9backed Yes | 41c | 30.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 40c | 27.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 22.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 62c | 21.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 74c | 20.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe116…96c2backed Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0296…ad01backed Yes | 65c | 18.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.