NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 246.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09aa11a3d851dc3f41ee8103da2e67cfd64f79c4ed5083df413d3a17377c58b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 2,843$1,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395.69 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 50c | 2,536$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.64 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…4ebebacked Under | 50c | 2,120$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.13 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 50c | 2,070$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,035.13 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 1,782$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.34 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Over | 52c | 1,014$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.72 | 589 | 51.3%302 W · 287 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bd…270cbacked Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 49c | 217$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.32 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 47c | 210.8$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.08 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa308…2d12backed Over | 53c | 210.8$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Over | 52c | 208.33$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 236 | 52.5%124 W · 112 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 52c | 171.49$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.66 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 48c | 96.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 215 | 48.4%104 W · 111 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Under | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a51…ef48backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 246.5this page
- Cavaliers vs. HeatHeat won
- Cavaliers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 244.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 245.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 247.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Heat won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.