NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 247.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc91fb59edf7239d639f98c01b139da2ea8b22fa509deeed7543b56c1982628e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,955
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 52c | 7,561$3,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,629.4 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 51c | 2,267$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.94 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce99…637ebacked Over | 50c | 1,560$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Under | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 1,452$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.35 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 49c | 1,247$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.94 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e15…665bbacked Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b1…f285backed Over | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Under | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec0…f7aabacked Under | 52c | 851.4$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.73 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Over | 52c | 700$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Under | 72c | 583$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.35 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 506.46$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.69 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed Under | 66c | 500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.9 | 158 | 38.6%61 W · 97 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 30c | 498.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.47 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 52c | 462.08$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.8 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Over | 51c | 406$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.94 | 173 | 54.3%94 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 331$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.63 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…821cbacked Over | 49c | 251.18$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.1 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Under | 48c | 220$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa308…2d12backed Over | 50c | 198.27$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe082…04bcbacked Under | 52c | 191.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…862dbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…efc4backed Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Under | 52c | 115$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6169backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 45c | 97.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f1…f0e8backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0b…e2a3backed Under | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 50c | 93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 49c | 88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…908dbacked Under | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 166 | 50%83 W · 83 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Under | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3e…f5d8backed Under | 52c | 73.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 49c | 69.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 50c | 51.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bba…b20fbacked Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 603 | 46.4%280 W · 323 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0071…32dfbacked Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x795f…1871backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 49c | 37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Under | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Under | 50c | 29.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49f…33a4backed Under | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555e…6bb8backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5223…29d9backed Under | 52c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5197…1992backed Under | 50c | 21.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…61debacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 64 | 78.1%50 W · 14 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Under | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 247.5this page
- Cavaliers vs. HeatHeat won
- Cavaliers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 244.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 245.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 246.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)Heat won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.