NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4eb78ef42afa20cd2ea3e601bfb9a2f343e678998fffa6ccc5110f30a1e749d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Heatof Cavaliers, Heat
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Heat | 50c | 23,442$11,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,805.52 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Heat | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Cavaliers | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Cavaliers | 50c | 16,530$8,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,265 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Heat | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,500 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3745…cf3bbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 12,458$6,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,229.18 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Cavaliers | 50c | 6,822$3,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,401.53 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Cavaliers | 51c | 4,444$2,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,266.44 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25cc…9297backed Heat | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 169 | 42%71 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Heat | 51c | 3,922$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.57 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Cavaliers | 51c | 3,600$1,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,836 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Heat | 50c | 3,077$1,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,551.05 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Heat | 50c | 2,504$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258.64 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Cavaliers | 51c | 1,993$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.35 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 1,776$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Heat | 51c | 1,022$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.57 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Cavaliers | 49c | 995.2$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.14 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce0…9fbcbacked Cavaliers | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Cavaliers | 51c | 700$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Cavaliers | 53c | 628.3$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Cavaliers | 51c | 578$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.78 | 853 | 47.9%409 W · 444 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Heat | 49c | 410$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.2 | 230 | 47%108 W · 122 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed Cavaliers | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 137 | 48.9%67 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…1726backed Cavaliers | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Cavaliers | 51c | 317.54$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.82 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cavaliers | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Heat | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Heat | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 52c | 201$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf332…3c89backed Cavaliers | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 656 | 49.2%323 W · 333 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 180.92$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.46 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a60…50e1backed Cavaliers | 50c | 140.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.19 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 128.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Cavaliers | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Heat | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Cavaliers | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Heat | 50c | 89.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Heat | 50c | 80.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…e89ebacked Heat | 50c | 74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Heat | 46c | 67.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…d153backed Heat | 50c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Heat | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2b…6a1dbacked Heat | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Heat | 50c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e0…0eebbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…845bbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Heat | 47c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f5…6df5backed Heat | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +42%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Heat | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…3ae9backed Heat | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…3ca6backed Cavaliers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd15d…c293backed Cavaliers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6f…e887backed Heat | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…0a0fbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf6…5b0bbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-7.5)this page
- Cavaliers vs. HeatHeat won
- Cavaliers vs. Heat: 1H O/U 120.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 244.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 245.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 246.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Heat: O/U 247.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Heat won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)Heat won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.