NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Utah: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09b535f756210badcad34954d76fed46e0c8ef358dcc2dc43c139e5dbc589fb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,040 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 44c | 580.02$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.34 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 57c | 404.45$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.06 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…f879backed Under | 29c | 347.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.83 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 72c | 329$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.14 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa181…2e0fbacked Over | 26c | 258$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf87…ebc0backed Under | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…149fbacked Over | 26c | 247$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 65c | 223.45$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.41 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cea…796dbacked Under | 74c | 206$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…7ffabacked Under | 74c | 175$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2f…634ebacked Under | 74c | 169$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…719dbacked Over | 26c | 159$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 53c | 156.33$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.79 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3378…78d2backed Under | 74c | 156$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…5510backed Over | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…f3c0backed Over | 26c | 142$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 38c | 131.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 26c | 115$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 31c | 77.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fc…74a4backed Under | 71c | 70.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 75c | 66.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8d…674fbacked Over | 25c | 66.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 36c | 58.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…2c29backed Under | 64c | 55.5$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 46c | 53.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 53c | 52.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 53c | 49.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 23c | 49.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 72c | 35.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…5dc1backed Under | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 234 | 50%117 W · 117 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 56c | 29.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Under | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Utah: O/U 7.5this page
- Penguins vs. UtahPenguins won
- Penguins vs. Utah: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Utah: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Utah (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.