NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Utah: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bcee398ade7e794ba15cb49517c4c4edb4b2059d51f02d7c6d35e89c183fbb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $198,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,370 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 48,785$25,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,828.96 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 48c | 47,539$22,776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,762.89 | 203 | 54.2%110 W · 93 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Under | 54c | 36,335$19,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,513 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 47c | 32,000$15,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,960 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Over | 47c | 27,758$13,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,711.7 | 403 | 51.9%209 W · 194 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 46c | 13,716$6,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,406.65 | 390 | 47.9%187 W · 203 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 47c | 8,510$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,510.55 | 403 | 56.3%227 W · 176 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Under | 53c | 8,298$4,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,398.19 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97b6…35b9backed Under | 53c | 8,093$4,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,289.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29cc…3c29backed Under | 53c | 6,450$3,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,418.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 53c | 5,035$2,669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,668.78 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 53c | 3,145$1,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,666.76 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 3,067$1,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,636.13 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 53c | 1,890$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.7 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 53c | 1,876$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.58 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 53c | 1,415$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 45c | 1,154$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.5 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under | 55c | 1,150$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.5 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Under | 53c | 1,062$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.86 | 265 | 51.3%136 W · 129 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 53c | 991$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.23 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 797.94$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.41 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under | 54c | 622$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.05 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 53c | 600$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318 | 326 | 48.2%157 W · 169 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 53c | 585.2$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.48 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d6…be17backed Over | 53c | 567$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.73 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c4…f4cbbacked Under | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -5.1wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 46c | 441$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.59 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 49c | 430.61$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.6 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa11d…72a8backed Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 76 | 63.2%48 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 53c | 308.73$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.63 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 53c | 279.58$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.18 | 849 | 53.8%457 W · 392 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 52c | 248.52$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.12 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 38c | 221.15$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 347 | 52.4%182 W · 165 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Under | 50c | 203.14$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 46c | 191.17$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.79 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 59c | 188.86$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.23 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Over | 47c | 168.09$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.09 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…9bb2backed Under | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 48c | 135.83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 377 | 54.4%205 W · 172 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Under | 52c | 123.01$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.97 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9d…1299backed Over | 48c | 104.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.16 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 53c | 100.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 14c | 88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Over | 48c | 72.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…38cbbacked Under | 53c | 72.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Over | 47c | 71.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 38c | 68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…8506backed Under | 53c | 60.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd732…0fd0backed Under | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a4…9a10backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…020dbacked Under | 48c | 56.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 34c | 56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 56c | 55.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 48c | 55.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.87 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf6…2971backed Under | 53c | 52.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe23…e72bbacked Over | 48c | 48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9265backed Over | 48c | 41.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee1…268bbacked Over | 47c | 41.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Under | 53c | 38.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 211 | 58.8%124 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5193…b348backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc15…3a2ebacked Under | 54c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 53c | 36.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Under | 42c | 32.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Under | 55c | 32.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 170 | 42.4%72 W · 98 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Over | 47c | 30.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 208 | 57.7%120 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Over | 48c | 29.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 191 | 50.8%97 W · 94 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 53c | 29.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…5401backed Over | 48c | 29.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524f…bcbdbacked Under | 53c | 24.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Utah: O/U 6.5this page
- Penguins vs. UtahPenguins won
- Penguins vs. Utah: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Utah: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Utah (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.